Services - Predictive Analytics  
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At TrueNorth, we can assess the performance of your current models, as well as develop custom models to fit your product or policy goals. Evaluating your goals and objectives within an actionable timeframe, along with a thorough understanding of the available data elements, are critical to custom model development.

We employ a continuous refinement process, looking for opportunities to add new data elements and create custom variables to keep your Predictive Analytics working to give you the knowledge and foresight you require to effectively manage your business.

We also work with many commercial off-the-shelf (COTS) scoring products like the FICO consumer risk score. If you use a COTS score, we can assist in fitting the score scaling to your portfolio, and validate how well the score is predicting your specific business metrics. We then can recommend optimal strategies for implementation.

TrueNorth creates custom models for clients including:

  • Response
  • Charge-off Risk
  • Purchase Risk
  • Attrition
  • Revenue potential
  • Activation likelihood
  • Usage level
  • Cross-sell likelihood
  • Optimization of product selection

Model Assessment & Development Cycle

Our Model Assessment and Development process will leave you with a thorough understanding of all facets of the model. The models are yours to keep and are not proprietary or "black box".

  • Determine development sample.
  • Define model outcome (what is the model predicting).
  • Define outcome measurement window (e.g. 12 months in the future).
  • Determine segmentation.
  • Test different modeling methods, variable combinations and transformations.
  • Assess variables and their predictive power.
  • Finalize model(s).
  • Validate model(s) and produce validation statistics and reports.
  • Define and apply scaling methodology.
  • Produce a deliverable documenting the methodology and metrics behind the development and model validation.
  • Assist in implementation (if needed).

212 Archer St., Suite 202 | Bel Air, MD 21014 | 410-838-1046 | Fax: 410-838-1046 © 2011 TrueNorth