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Bankcard - Attrition Model

Goal: To develop a bankcard attrition model that takes into consideration the profit associated with the attriting account and gives the issuer enough time to take action to prevent closing the account.

TrueNorth Process: We analyzed 19 months of master file and credit bureaus and determined an actionable, profit-based attrition definition. We examined movements in 3-month total profit, leaving a 3-month window open before attrition, in order to target a program to prevent attrition.

Results: Using a Multivariate Adaptive Regression Splines (MARS) algorithm, the issuer was able to target 24% of the population with anti-attrition tactics and reach 88% of the profitable attritors.



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